Pacquaio vs Mosley: The Fight Night Verdict

In the final sim we conducted with ESPN last week, we matched-up Manny Pacquiao against his May 7th opponent, Shane Mosley, in what's sure to be the fight of the year for Pacquiao's WBO Welterweight Championship.  Both fighters love a good fight and don't expect to see either running from an opportunity to exchange punches in the middle of the ring.

Leading up to the fight, Showtime released a few behind the scenes looks at the two boxers as they readied themselves for the fight to be held in Las Vegas at the MGM Grand.  Check out the first 3 episodes below and look out for the 4th episode airing Friday night on Showtime and repeating on CBS this Saturday prior to the fight.

Fight Camp 360 - Pacquiao vs Mosley

As we did with the previous 3 Pacquiao sims, check out the official EA SPORTS simulation of the Pacquiao-Mosley fight along with a brief analysis from EA SPORTS’ Alain Quinto and Aaron Boulding.

Shane Mosley

Welterweight | 46-6-1 (39 KOs)

At his physical peak, Mosley – considered in some circles to be the world's top fighter only a few years ago – possessed a combination of power and speed that few fighters at any weight could match. He dismantled both Oscar De La Hoya and Fernando Vargas twice, and even in his losses to Vernon Forrest and Winky Wright, Mosley gave as good as he got. A good counterpuncher with a dangerous right hand, he fights with a style that could be troublesome for Pacquiao. But at age 39, does a step-slower Mosley have even a puncher's chance against Manny?

Quinto:  A few years ago we had a community event up here in Canada for Fight Night Round 4 and Shane Mosley was an invited guest to the studio to talk about his involvement in the game. I was very impressed with how well spoken he was and with the positive attitude he had about his career.  During a conversation he was having with some of the other community members it had come up that I was a big fan of fellow countryman Manny Pacquiao which immediately became a question of whether or not he would stand a chance against the reigning pound-for-pound champ.  He told me that he’d fight him anytime, anywhere. Knowing his career stats to that point, I was just as confident that he would give Pac-Man a great fight and had a good chance at defeating the Fighting Pride of the Phillipines. 

But that was three years ago.  Since then, Mosley has gone further past his prime and though he’s shown a few flashes of his glory years of the late 90’s, he’s not as fast as he once was. Although he still packs a mean one-punch looping right hook along with the heart of a lion, he doesn’t stand much of a chance against a boxer that just keeps getting better with every fight he’s had since he was a teenager. 

Manny Pacquiao is a much better fighter.  He’s faster than Mosley, he has the lasting power to go well into the late rounds of fights, and he has the backing of millions of followers whether they be countrymen who love him religiously or boxing fans who know a great fighter when they see one.  As the simulation predicts, Shane Mosley will get knocked out for the first time in his career and though I was only slightly confident that Pacman could do so a few years back, this week it’s without a doubt that I believe this fight will not go past nine rounds. 

Boulding: 

I’ve run this fight a few times myself in Fight Night Champion and not to be condescending but there are very few paths to victory for Shane Mosley. Manny Pacquiao has a lot of room for error in this fight because he can take a devastating punch, learn from it and quickly recalculate to erase any mistakes. We saw that on display in Dallas against Antonio Margarito. I’ve always felt that Pacquiao’s greatest attribute is his boxing toolkit that allows him to go get whatever he needs –defense, footwork, a jab—to address a problem that an opponent presents. And this is where Mosley is between a rock and an anvil.

At this point, Mosley’s right hook is like a utility bill --it brings power and you know it’s coming. He would need to catch Pacquiao with a flurry or three, put enough power in them and then hope Pacquiao is having an off day where punches actually hurt him. Meanwhile Mosley has to have a gameplan to withstand the punishment that he knows is going to be coming from Pacquiao. More than one fighter of this generation has tried to limit the shots they take from Pacquiao by slipping, retreating and covering up once he starts firing and it’s never worked. Margarito tried staying still and standing his ground against Pacquiao onslaughts and that turned ugly, literally
.

Who's next after Pacman retires?

Tonight Manny Pacquiao fights Tony Margarito for the vacant WBC Super Welterweight Championship in Dallas, TX where he last beat Joshua Clottey a few months back. As a Pacman supporter, I'm firmly behind my fellow countryman in his quest for an 8^th division title and should be the better of the two combatants in Texas Stadium. Just like Jeff mentioned in his blog the other day, we Filipinos are gambling folk and there's nothing I like better than a sure thing. There's no doubt in my mind that this one's a sure thing.

Manny's Last Fight?

Pacquiao will be fighting over 147 for the first time while Margarito will step in the ring for only his second bout in the weight class, the first being in a fight I'm sure he'd rather not ever have mentioned again. Manny looks to add to his legacy while Tony looks to redeem his.



It'll be speed and accuracy versus endurance and power as Margarito's chin will resist a bit of the punishment bound to fly at him in the way of right jabs, left crosses, and right hooks. Margarito will stalk Pacquiao around the ring as his longer punch will continually be avoided and followed by counters. There will be times where he will catch the smaller fighter on the ropes or in the corner and get in a few heavy shots, but for the most part his aggressive style will have him walking into punches from directions he will never have known possible. I'm predicting Pacman gets the TKO in the seventh after putting Tony down for the third time in the round.

Manny and his people know this is a good fight for him and though many will call for the immediate signing of Manny and Mayweather once again, it's very unlikely that'll happen, IMO. A lot has been said about Manny's side projects between fights and even during training for fights. There's nothing he won't do for his people however with a legacy stamped with 50+ wins and eight titles in eight weight classes, it will be time for him to hang up the gloves and devote his time to other endeavors. He has said himself that he has already accomplished everything he has ever wanted to from within the ring. His life in boxing has been a storied one and though it won't continue in arenas fighting for titles, his legacy will grow as he blazes a new trail to become the Filipino president one day.

His departure from boxing will leave behind a void for a new Champion to take the helm.